June 30th, 2020
Thursday's release of the June U.S. employment report will be a reality check for markets surprised by the extent of May's 2.5+ million bounceback in non-farm payrolls. With parts of the United States seeing worrying acceleration of COVID-19 virus cases through June and localized economic shutdowns and travel restrictions emerging again, the effect on what has traditionally been a very geographically flexible workforce will be watched closely. The consensus forecast is for another rise of 3 million non-farm payrolls and a drop in the official jobless rate to 12.3% from 13.3% - but the range of payrolls expectations spans from +405,000 to +9 million.
Chart by Ritvik Carvalho and commentary by Mike Dolan
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