June 19th, 2020
Even though financial markets appear not to have considered U.S. election trends much to date - with the ebb and flow of the pandemic unsurprisingly dominating this year - Democrat challenger Joe Biden's opinion poll, bookmaker and prediction market lead over incumbent Donald Trump has opened up to more than 10%+ in June and some investors are taking notice. Some point to relative under-performance of U.S. stocks vs. the rest of the world, some to dollar weakness. Bank of America analysts put a record withdrawal of investment flows from U.S. healthcare stocks over the past week down to "election noise". Whatever the real impact, the focus will sharpen into November.
S&P 500’s recent underperformance relative to the MSCI All Country World Index.
Chart by Ritvik Carvalho and commentary by Mike Dolan
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