29th September, 2020
Lira and rouble nosedive
Neither Turkey's lira nor Russia's rouble are having a good pandemic, with both currencies spiralling lower this week against a softer dollar generally - despite (or maybe even because of...) last week's surprise interest rate rise in Turkey and steady oil prices for Russa. The lira continues to set new record lows against both the dollar and euro, with the rouble near 5-year lows against the euro and its lowest since March versus the greenback. Both currencies have now under-performed MSCI's emerging markets currency index by some 20% this year. The list of negatives for both is mounting even beyond the pandemic shock - with falling foreign ownership as a share of local government bond markets coming as Chinese bonds get included in international indices while regional conflicts, risks of international sanctions and a possible change of U.S. President in November all being cited as negatives.
Chart by Ritvik Carvalho and commentary by Mike Dolan.
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